The Persistent Colombian Conflict: Subnational Analysis of the Duration of Violence

The growing empirical literature on the analysis of civil war has recently included the study of conflict duration at the cross-country level. This paper presents, for the first time, a within-country analysis of the determinants of violence duration. I focus on the experience of the Colombian armed conflict. While the conflict has been active for about five decades, local violence ebbs and flows and areas experiencing continuous conflict coexist with places that have been able to resile and where violence is mostly absent. I examine a wide range of factors potentially associated with violence duration at the municipal level, including scale variables, geographical conditions, economic and social variables, institutions and state presence, inequality, government intervention, and victimization variables. I characterize a few variables robustly correlated with the persistence of localized conflict, both across specifications and using different econometric models of duration analysis. Acknowledgements: I am grateful to Catherine Rodriguez, Jurgen Brauer and participants at the DPE workshop, Universidad del Rosario for useful comments and discussion. * Universidad del Rosario. Cl 14 # 4-80, of. 210, Bogotá.